The threat of rising airfares

[Arubalisa]

The threat of rising airfares

by: Michelle Baran, Wednesday, Feb 23, 2011, 11:10 AM
"There's a theory that once the airfare surpasses the price of the land portion of a trip, travelers will opt out of said trip. Whether or not that's true, tour operators and vacation packagers are worried that increasing airfares, spurred by improving demand and surging fuel costs, will give travelers a sticker shock that will make them think twice about that vacation to Italy, Hawaii, or farther afield.

One way to avoid that, they say, is for travelers to trade in the last-minute, price-shopping that may have worked at the height of the recession for a book-sooner-rather-than-later strategy.

"We have a 'perfect storm' in 2011 of reduced capacity and much higher demand, and this is leading to airlines operating very profitably on those routes and they have all declared clearly that they will not be increasing capacity in 2011," said Paul Wiseman, president of escorted tour company Trafalgar Tours.

In fact, according to the Federal Aviation Administration, airline capacity in available seat miles domestically and internationally will actually increase 4.5% this year after posting a 0.5% decrease for 2010. But as business travelers return to the road, tour operators are worried that leisure travelers who wait too long to book will be fighting for seats, at a price. And that certain high-priority destinations, like Europe, will be the first to go. ...

Jack Richards, president and CEO of Pleasant Holidays, said the political unrest in Egypt and Libya hasn't helped either.

"These are large oil producing countries and the political unrest makes the markets nervous and uncertain so the price of oil has been driving higher airfares," said Richards.

Richards advised that if customers find a reasonable fare, they should book the flight as soon as possible to lock in the price and avoid higher airline-imposed fuel surcharges."

[jdoll]

The next few months I agree with the strategy: book when you can live with the price. But if we hit $4 gas this summer for any extended period all bets are off IMHO. If you remember the summer 2008 (last time we had $4 gas) people generally got off airplanes and started vacationing closer to home. The airlines were running lots of empty seats prior to the economic crash that fall.

[mmattalo]

IMHO - there is no sense of reality in air travel. For me to visit my family on a 1.5 hour flight in Canada is $800+ yet to get to Aruba from Buffalo is $360 return . . . and from Toronto is $1,300 return (2 hours drive time distance). I believe the consumer is totally confused in the price / value equation. I booked my son to Japan a month ago (we ended paying up with points) . . . but his round trip would have been around $900 . . . tell me the logic in all of this . . . Michael

[Andrea J.]

it is totally illogical and frustrating.
the canadians seem to have it much worse on pricing than those of us on the east coast of usa.

[Arubalisa]

Supply and Capacity
Demand for the Capacity Available
Competition which will result in the TOTAL number of available seats available

There is only one airline, Delta, which flies non-stop from Atlanta to Aruba weekdays.
Their fare during the week with no non-stop competition OFF SEASON has consistently been $800+.

High season right now, Saturday to Saturday
Delta Non-stop $427 (TWO flights per day)
Air Tran Non-stop $457
Spirit One stop $449

[Arubalisa]

$5-a-Gallon Gas? Where Are Airfare Prices Headed?

"Two factors are driving these increases, and Shaw Brown said neither is budging anytime soon.

“First, the price of jet fuel has increased substantially, and fuel and labor are airlines’ main costs,” she said. “Also, there is a lot of demand for air travel—nearly every seat is taken on flights in the past year.” ...

The most important thing for travelers to do is to plan and book well in advance to combat increasing fares, she said."

[qlaval]

Originally Posted by Andrea J.

...the canadians seem to have it much worse on pricing than those of us on the east coast of usa.

Couldn't agree more....
From Montreal, $1,600 for us both is considered a good price...

[Cple]

Well,. its a shame, but everything we buy is skyrocketing in price. We're going to have to live with it, and continue to keep coming to this wonderful land of paradise,,,, Aruba,,,,,, Lets keep thinking positive,,,,,,, Enjoy Aruba,,,,,

[jdoll]

I'll find a way to pay for the flight there. If it gets to expense to pay for the return trip .... oh well. How much does it pay to hand out dinner coupons on the beach?

[gaby]

my husband & i just booked with continental for december for 2 weeks. the fare dropped from $478 to $348. we booked it immediately.