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  1. #1
    Aruba since 1979
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    Andrea J.'s Avatar
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    another tropical something?

    this wunderground weather place is pretty neat.
    i have been keeping my eye on this particular disturbance.

    i cannot make heads nor tails out of the charting though

    can you?

    Click the map below to change the zoom level.


  2. #2
    Senior Member AuntieMame's Avatar
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    Four aliens have landed.

    Of the four, only one is environmentally friendly.

  3. #3
    Aruba since 1979
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    isn't that the most bizarre tracking that you have ever seen?
    my favorite alien...........ET.

    Quote Originally Posted by AuntieMame View Post
    Four aliens have landed.

    Of the four, only one is environmentally friendly.

  4. #4
    Senior Member DANNYO's Avatar
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    It looks like to me that the lines are going somewhere

  5. #5
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    The different trackings are all from different "professional" weather people/services monitoring the storm. Living in Florida, this is a VERY common occurrence, as nobody seems to know where ANYTHING is going until the last minute!! I always said predicting the weather would be an easy job...... PARTLY sunny, CHANCE of clouds, CHANCE of rain, etc. LOL

    Debbie

  6. #6
    Senior Member Arubalisa's Avatar
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    National Hurricane Center says, "AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS."

    Now, as far as those aliens go , it seems the NHC doesn't like them much either. Thus, the reason you go to weatherunderground instead of them.
    NHC Forecast Model Background and Information
    Summary of the NHC/TPC Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Guidance Models

    Below is the "key" to understand which "alien" is which:
    GFS Global Forecast System
    GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) is a limited area baroclinic model developed specifically for hurricane prediction.
    NOGAPS is the U.S. Navy's global spectral forecast
    BAM (Beta and Advection) Model -- BAMM model is run with medium vertically averaged winds
    LBAR (Limited area sine transform BARotropic) is a two-dimensional track prediction model
    SHIPS (Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme) is a statistical model that uses climatological, persistence and synoptic predictors

  7. #7
    Junior Member New Jersey Mike's Avatar
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    Smile Using the proper tool

    Hi Guys,
    I believe the problem/confusion is that your view is a model not actual satellite views. Go to this NOAA site parent page
    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

    The disturbance is currently located at 45w 10 n (9/3/ 07 10:51 am) and is referred to as 98 or Invest 98

    If you want to see Lat/Lon you will have to click the box

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html

    Additional view
    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-ir2.html

    This is the 2nd wave I mentioned on Friday

  8. #8
    Senior Member Arubalisa's Avatar
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    Great links Mike! Here is just one more that pretty much puts things in "plain English"
    Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

  9. #9
    Aruba since 1979
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    Ok kids
    Is number 1 going to screw things up for thursday travel???
    andrea

    Quote Originally Posted by Arubalisa View Post
    Great links Mike! Here is just one more that pretty much puts things in "plain English"
    Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

  10. #10
    Senior Member Arubalisa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andrea J. View Post
    Ok kids
    Is number 1 going to screw things up for thursday travel???
    andrea
    Oh that silly little thing will still be out in the Atlantic! No worries!

    This guy believes that the wave will develop into a tropical depression but read below:

    "...but I expect 98L will be able to overcome this dry air and shear and organize into a tropical depression. Thursday is the earliest this would happen. The UKMET [United Kingdom Meteorological Office computer model- similar to ones listed in my previous post] is the only model that develops 98L into a tropical depression.
    98L is nearly stationary, and it will be at least six days before it will threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands (see below...a pretty darn big area-islands in green). A strong trough of low pressure will pass north of 98L Tuesday and Wednesday, which could impart a more northwesterly motion to the storm."

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