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  1. #1
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    Tropical Storm Ernesto - Saturday

    Looks like Ernesto is going to pass very close to Aruba on Saturday August 4th.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap....shtml?3-daynl

    Any updates welcomed.

  2. #2
    Senior Member Arubalisa's Avatar
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    Forecast Discussion



    08/02/2012
    Forecast Discussion valid from 02/08/2012 to 03/08/2012.

    Departamento Meteorologico Aruba http://www.meteo.aw


    Synopsis: A relatively dry airflow limit the development

    showers over Aruba during the first forecast period. After friday late into saturday instability and moiture will increase. Therefore some showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm can develop during the weekend. On saturday wind will shift around due to the possible cyclone passing to our north on Saturday.

    Significant tropical systems:

    Tropical depression number five strengthes into Tropical Storm ERNESTO, Tropical Storm ERNESTO was located late this afternoon (21:00 UTC) at about 475 kilometers East of the Eastern Caribbean and continues to make progress towards the West over the Tropical Atlantic.

    This tropical cyclone does not pose a threat to the island of Aruba at the moment.

  3. #3
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    Thanks Arubalisa

    Many thanks for the prompt response. I've saved the link in my favorites. Hope that the projection holds.

  4. #4
    Senior Member Arubalisa's Avatar
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    Arrow With little wind on Saturday it will be HOT, HOT, HOT

    http://www.meteo.aw/marckforecast.php

    Friday night
    Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible after midnight. Low 77F (25C). Wind east-northeast around 14 mph (12 kts), gusting to 27 mph (23 kts), in the evening, becoming 11 mph (10 kts), gusting to 23 mph(20 kts), after midnight. Chance of precipitation less than 20 percent. Precipitation mostly between .08 -.40 inches (2 and 10 mm).

    Saturday
    Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated showers possible. High 91F (33C). Heat index up to 100F (38C). UV index up to 7. Wind east-northeast around 6 mph (5 kts), gusting to 23 mph (20 kts), in the morning, becoming west-southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation mostly between .20 - .40 inches (5 and 10 mm). Cyclone center roughly 173 miles (278 km) northeast of Aruba.

    Saturday night
    Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Low 77 F(25C). Wind south to east-southeast around 6 mph (5 kts), gusting to 21 mph (18 kts), in the evening, becoming east-southeast 15 mph (13 kts), gusting to 26 mph (23 kts), after midnight. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Precipitation mostly between .20 - .60 inches (5 and 15 mm). Cyclone center roughly 127 miles (204 km) north of Aruba.

    Sunday
    Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible. High 84 F (29C). UV index up to 9. Wind east-southeast around 21 mph (18 kts), gusting to 37 mph (32 kts), in the morning, becoming east 32 mph (28 kts), gusting to 38 mph (33 kts), in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Precipitation mostly between .20 - .60 inches (5 and 15 mm). Cyclone center roughly 345 miles (556 km) northwest of Aruba.

    Sunday night
    Partly to mostly cloudy in the evening, becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Low 79F (26C). Wind east around 21 mph (18 kts), gusting to 35 mph (30 kts).

    August Averages
    Average wind speed 18 mph
    Average maximum wind speed 34 mph


    The US National Hurricane Center if predicting a 10-20% probability of tropical storm force winds of up to or equaling 39 mph for a duration of a minute or more. That can easily describe many a June day in Aruba


    Sorry if I screwed up any conversions , have to go make dinner so was rushing through them

  5. #5
    Senior Member Arubalisa's Avatar
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    Probability has decreased to 5-10% for tropical storm winds.

    Greatest probability for rain now looks like Saturday night into Sunday morning with predicted sun Sunday afternoon.

    The predicted heat index for Saturday is 102F so I am thinking the weekend will not be a washout.

  6. #6
    Senior Member Chadd's Avatar
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    The worst part is usually the couple days before it passes when the air is dead calm. It won't be fun to be flying in or out this weekend, that's for sure. There will likely be some course changes to avoid the worst of the storm

  7. #7
    Senior Member Arubalisa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chadd View Post
    The worst part is usually the couple days before it passes when the air is dead calm. It won't be fun to be flying in or out this weekend, that's for sure. There will likely be some course changes to avoid the worst of the storm

    Today

    Partly cloudy. High 32. Heat index up to 37. UV index up to 8. Wind east-northeast around 15 kts, gusting to 25 kts. Cyclone center roughly km northeast of Aruba 11am.

    Tonight
    Fair to partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain after midnight. Low 25. Wind east-northeast around 11 kts, gusting to 21 kts, in the evening, becoming 9 mph (8 kts), gusting to 18 kts, after midnight. Chance of precipitation less than 20 percent. Precipitation mostly less than 2 mm. Cyclone center roughly 575 km east-northeast of Aruba 10pm.

    Saturday
    Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible. High 34. Heat index up to 102 F. (39). UV index up to 10. Wind east-northeast around 5 mph (4 kts), gusting to 14 kts, in the morning, becoming west-southwest to south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Precipitation mostly between 2 and 8 mm. Cyclone center roughly 240 km north of Aruba 2pm.

    Saturday night
    Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance of rain. Isolated thundershowers possible. Low 25. Wind east-southeast around 10 kts, gusting to 23 kts, in the evening, becoming 17 kts, gusting to 27 kts, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. Precipitation mostly between 2 and 8 mm. Cyclone center roughly 305 km north-northwest of Aruba 10pm.

    Sunday
    Partly to mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the morning, then a slight chance of rain in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms possible. High 29. Heat index up to 34. UV index up to 9. Wind east-southeast around 19 kts, gusting to 33 kts. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation mostly between 5 and 20 mm. Cyclone center roughly 585 km northwest of Aruba 10am.

    Sunday night
    Partly cloudy in the evening, becoming fair to partly cloudy after midnight. Low 26. Wind east around 18 kts, gusting to 32 kts.

    Monday
    Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain. High 32. Heat index up to 36. UV index up to 9. Wind east around 17 kts, gusting to 31 kts. Chance of precipitation less than 20 percent. Precipitation mostly less than 2 mm.

    Monday night
    Partly cloudy in the evening, becoming mostly clear after midnight. Low 27. Wind east around 17 kts, gusting to 28 kts.

  8. #8
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    At 11:00am here Staurday morning on the island. Very humid Sun attempting to poke through extensive cloud. The odd drop off rain. No wind or breeze. These are the conditions we have in Noord. Will keep you posted
    . Very clammy.
    John

  9. #9
    Senior Member Arubalisa's Avatar
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    Queen Beatrix Airport, Aruba
    Aug 04, 2012 - 12:00 PM EDT
    Wind: from the S at 5 MPH (4 KT) (direction variable)
    Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s)
    Sky conditions: partly cloudy
    Temperature: 86 F (30 C)
    Heat index: 96.8 F (36.0 C)
    Dew Point: 77 F (25 C)
    Relative Humidity: 74%


    Hopefully there will not be too many sunburned tourists tonight UV rays penetrate the clouds and reflect off the sand and water
    UV: 10
    Very High

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