There is now an official Tropical Storm Watch for Aruba. I am leaving tomorrow

Yes, I just saw this on the Weather Channel. Tropical Storm Felix is expected to pass north of Aruba on Sunday causing heavy rain and high winds. It is expected to become a hurricane at some point, but it should only effect Aruba as a Tropical storm. Not that that's a good thing...just better than a hurricane!

~Dana & Dan~
20th Anniversary in Aruba - October 2007

http://www.weather.an/cyclones/index.asp

CYCLONE MESSAGE NO 1
WATCH ADVISORY NO 1
Date: August, 31 2007 Time: 5:00 P.M.
..... Tropical Depression # 6 approaching the Eastern Caribbean....
STORM IDENTIFICATION: Tropical Depression # 6
INTENSITY CATEGORY: Tropical Depression
CENTER LOCATION: Near 11.8N 58.6W or 380 KM/ 235 MILES Northeast of Trinidad
LOCATION TIME: 5:00 P.M.
PRESENT MOVEMENT: 275 AT 17 MPH/ 28 KM/HR.
MAX WINDS NEAR CENTER: 30 KTS/ 55 KMH
DISCUSSION: Tropical Depression # 6 has formed east of the Caribbean during Friday afternoon. A Hurricane Hunter has found a circulation with wind speeds of 30 knots. The center of the system was located this afternoon at 3:00 PM near 11.6 N 58.2 W. This is about 310 km northeast of Trinidad. With the present forecast TD#6 is expected to continue to strengthen and become a Tropical Storm in the next twenty four hours. This will take the center of TD#6 (as Tropical Storm Felix) at a close distance north of the ABC Islands by early Sunday morning. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the ABC islands as from this evening. The possibility of the issuance of a Tropical Storm Warningby Saturday morning for the ABC island is not excluded.
EFFECT ON LOCAL CONDITIONS: As the center of the system is forecast to pass close to the north of the ABC Islands sea conditions are forecast to become rough. In this connection a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from this evening. There is a large area of thundershowers associated with this system and in this regard from Saturday evening throughout Sunday rain bands are forecast to affect these islands.
WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT: Tropical Storm Watch in effect for Bonaire, Curacao and Aruba
A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect as from this evening. A Small Craft Warning will be issued by Saturday morning
FORECAST POSITIONS: DATE/TIME POSITION INTENSITY LOCATION
Saturday, September 1, 8:00 AM 12.6N 62.4W Category TS 650 km east of Bonaire
Saturday, September 1, 2:00 PM 12.9N 64.0W Category TS 480 km east of Bonaire
Saturday, September 1 , 8:00 PM 13.3N 65.7W Category TS 370 km east northeast of Bonaire

TROPICAL STORM WATCH: An announcement for a specific area that a tropical storm or incipient tropical storm conditions poses a possible threat within 36 hours.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING: A warning for tropical storm conditions, including possible sustained winds within the range 63-117 km/h (39-73 mph) (34-63 knots) are expected in specified areas within 24 hours or less.

NEXT ADVISORY: Saturday September 1, 2007, 07:00 AM
END
================================================== =======
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/312049.shtml
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REPORTED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS UP TO 36 KT. THESE WINDS EQUATE TO ABOUT 30 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND AGREE WELL WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB. THUS THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS BORN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BECOMING IMPRESSIVE WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN.

GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WIND SHEAR NEAR THE DEPRESSION WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. COUPLED WITH THE
WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A RECIPE FOR AT LEAST SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS DO NOT STRENGTHEN THE DEPRESSION...AND CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. FOR NOW...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/14. GLOBAL MODELS
KEEP A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

Aruba Bound! ~ Hoosier Kitties ~ Our-Cruises ~ Blogging to Aruba
Back to paradise Trip #18

We were on the island for Dean and hopefully this one won't be any worse.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/010233.shtml?

Quote:

1100 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2007

Quote:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 7 INCHES. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...COASTAL VENEZUELA AND THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS...AND THE NETHERLAND ANTILLES OF ARUBA... BONAIRE... AND CURACAO.

Aruba Bound! ~ Hoosier Kitties ~ Our-Cruises ~ Blogging to Aruba
Back to paradise Trip #18

Warnings have now been posted for the ABC islands with current sustained winds of 45 mph and gradually strengthening. The good news is that it is not expected to reach hurricane strength until Tuesday, well after it has passed Aruba. I have a feeling that tomorrow will be a very rainy, stormy day but the surf should be magnificent. I hope the beaches fare okay.

~Dana & Dan~
20th Anniversary in Aruba - October 2007

It is being reported that the rain will be the main concern with this storm as it passes ABC's not the wind. The storm should not reach huricain force until it passes. This should also be less damaging to the beaches to the west and south. Although if you are driving becareful of flooding and running water from any hills. Jeep rentes should remember that the rock and soil can become very slippery durring and after any rain. I might even put off tacking the hill in route to the natural pool.

Bring your camcorder for any cool ocurrances and if you don't own one you can buy a disposable one at CVS for about 30 - 35 dollars.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/011744.shtml?
2 pm advisory is somewhat worse

Aruba Bound! ~ Hoosier Kitties ~ Our-Cruises ~ Blogging to Aruba
Back to paradise Trip #18

to our aruban friends.....stay dry and bring in the pets and patio furniture!!
wishing you all well and hope that it is a real non event for the island of aruba.


Click image to zoom in – Turn track off

Kevin @ USS Constitution at his commissioning from Midshipman to Ensign 6/20/08