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Thread: Weather

  1. #541
    Jax
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    Does anyone have any more information than what I just read (see quoted area below)? It is making me a wee bit on the nervous side before I head to Aruba next week.................


    - ohh boy...


    • By marcus at dushicuracao.net
    • Date: 4 Nov 2010 02:52:27 -0000

    So....after exhaling a sigh of relief because Tomas's curve was not sending seawaves towards our southern coastline... I ran a few computer generated forecast models to figure out where Tomas would be today a week from now, and lo and behold I am seeing a forecast popping up which indicates a 45% chance of a low pressure area developing at 13.5 N and 71 W then head east or northeast towards Aruba on Tuesday November 9th 2010. At this time it looks like an invest in the model and it is too early to forecast what this low pressure could become. Because Tomas was also forecasted seven (7) days before you could see it on the satellite maps, I wish to urge F.C. and crew to take a gander at this one too. Let's pray it will only cause a lightning show visible due north wayyyy offshore of the northern coastline of the ACB (Aruba, Curacao, Bonaire) islands. Godspeed to all Marcus

  2. #542
    Senior Member Arubalisa's Avatar
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    It is a worst case scenario based upon 1 out of at least 6 computer models





    Forecasters also take into consideration long term history of tracks of former storms and as you can see below, though not pin point exact, most of the models are taking this into account.


  3. #543
    Member Steph853's Avatar
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    sorry, what does this mean?/ i just checked the weather it says strong thunderstorms?!?!? does anyoneknow what the weather is down there?

  4. #544
    Senior Member Arubalisa's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steph853 View Post
    i just checked the weather it says strong thunderstorms?!?!?


    Don't know what forecast said that, below is the local forecast

    Thursday Isolated Showers

    Friday Isolated Showers

    Saturday Isolated Showers

    Weather forecast for the ABC islands valid until Friday morning 06:00 hours, November 05, 2010.
    Issued: Thursday, November 04, 2010 06:00 A.S.T. (10:00 U.T.C.) http://www.meteo.an/Forecast_ABC_Gen_Eng.asp

    Weather:
    Today through Friday morning: Partly cloudy, at times mostly cloudy with a few isolated showers and possible thunderstorms.

    Outlook until Saturday morning: Partly cloudy with some isolated showers and a risk of thunderstorm. Light to moderate generally light East Southeast winds.

    Synopsis: Tropical storm Tomas has moved away from the local islands and has no more influence on the local weather. Atmospheric conditions however, remain favorable for clouds and shower development over the islands and surroundings.

  5. #545
    Member Steph853's Avatar
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    thanks, i was reading the post from jax and started to panic!! i leave monday...i think i am going to stay off the weather sites from now on!!

  6. #546
    Senior Member Arubalisa's Avatar
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    Doesn't look bad at all today...Some clouds, but sun too...
    Sky conditions: partly cloudy
    Temperature: 89 F
    Heat index: 100.6 F
    Attached Thumbnails Attached Thumbnails Weather-00408c859d6d.jpg  

  7. #547
    Senior Member dipeblnd's Avatar
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    not sure if this wil make you feel better but... We just returned Monday from a week on the island and could not have asked for better weather. Although the forecsat said thunderstorms and more than a 40% chance everyday we barey saw more than a minute or two of rain the whole week, well until we left on Monday afternoon there were some steadier showers but nothing dramatic!

  8. #548
    Jax
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    Arubalisa--Thank you for the clarification.

    Sorry to anyone I upset or caused undue worry to. I know to ignore the long term forecasts but was having a hard time swallowing that one. Regardless of weather, I know I will have a phenomenal time!

  9. #549
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    Wink

    By far, the "weather thread" here is the most popular. Currently there are 55 pages in the thread and that is growing!

    We always try to get folks to pay Very Little attention to weather forecasts for Aruba.
    Seeing the words "showers, isolated showers, rain,"and the illustrations of clouds and lightning bolts" is always unsettling.

    With only some exceptions the weather is typically HOT, Mostly Sunny, Breezy and Humid. There is usually a good chance of showers "somewhere" on the island.

    None of us enjoy the thought of spending $$$$ to holiday in Aruba and being rained out.
    The rain outs are few and far between. The rains of this past Sept/October are pretty unusual.

    In a perfect world we would not be concerned about weather...........then again in a perfect world i would be thin and rich

    We are heading to Aruba in mid December......i will do my darndest to not look at the weather forecasts.

  10. #550
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    i think i mentioned either on this thread or somewhere that we checked what the winter forecast for our area (NJ) would be. it said "there's an equal chance the weather will be higher, lower or equal to normal temperatures for this time of year". DUH!! In other words, "your guess is as good as ours".

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