Tropical Storm Threat!

[WaltVB]

There is a tropical storm forming that could impact Aruba and the gulf. Please pay close attention to the forecasts if you are on, or will be traveling to, Aruba in the next several days.


Caribbean Tropical Storm Likely To Form And Could Be Gulf Hurricane Threat Next Week | Weather Underground (wunderground.com)

[Pegmeister]

Walt, I just came on to post that the Divi Resorts tweeted that people should check their flights for September 22 - 25th for any cancellations or delays because of the anticipated tropical storm.

[schexc]

From NOAA:

1. Western Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is producing shower and thunderstorm activity
near the southern Windward Islands and over adjacent waters. The
system continues to show signs of organization, and it will likely
become a tropical depression within the next couple of days. The
disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across the
southern Windward Islands today and then move toward the central
Caribbean Sea later this week. Interests in the Windward Islands
should closely monitor the progress of this system as heavy rainfall
and gusty winds are affecting these islands. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is forecast to affect northwestern
Venezuela, northeastern Colombia, and the ABC island chain later
this week. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to survey the system this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[robin]

Last night we saw the projected path of this possible hurricane. This is the second one to head Aruba's way this year. Hopefully, it will miss Aruba and not do anything other than dump a lot of rain.

[Andrea J.]

In late June we were in Aruba when a storm was heading in Aruba's direction.
The storm did pass to the north of Aruba and made its way west and eventually, days later, named a tropical storm.
It did minimal damage............there were some large puddles and a few power outages, but it was not a tropical storm or a hurricane.
When it delivered the bad weather to Aruba, it was still an Invest, it was not a named tropical storm or a hurricane. There was a good 4 hours of heavy rain and some gusty wind, but nothing horrendous. Aruba seemed to be prepared for worse, but it seemed their preparedness came about ,12 hrs before the weather hit. (here in Fl we are hoarding and gassing up 3 days out...but Aruba may not get as much practice as we do)

The disturbance that is still being called Invest 98L, spaghetti plots are still a mess but the weather system is moving west, northwest and it is too early to be saying "the sky is falling." Aruba is out of the hurricane belt....yes, no maybe? All of the islands at any point of time could be hit with a storm. The ABC islands (in particular, Aruba) have been very lucky for many many decades.

There is a terrific website for tropical weather forecasting.............. Weather Underground. www.wundergound.com. and https://weather.com/storms/hurricane..._ven=hp-slot-1
We have a cruise booked for Monday. When it was booked we thought that "boy are we stupid for booking a cruise during hurricane season."
We are getting concerned, (but the sky is not yet falling) that Invest 98L winds up in the Gulf and into Tampa Bay Area. We got nailed with Irma 5 years ago.
We do not want to be bobbing around the Turks/Cacos while our community gets blasted with weather

So we wait and watch ..................I believe, or at least hope, that Aruba will be able to keep its claim as "outside the hurricane belt"

[Laura in NH]

I can confirm in the lowrise area, that sometime between 11 PM Tuesday and 2 AM Wednesday it poured out because I woke up at two and my bedroom floor was covered with about a half an inch of water. I went on my tour at eight and it was sunny and hot with no breeze out behind the chapel. We got back and went to Eduardo’s at La cabana and around 1130It poured again as we drove back to Divi Village. A Little bit of thunder but mostly rain. I started to clean off my deck and bedroom floor but the sun came out so I went down to the pool. As soon as I got in the water the skies opened up again and it rained very hard again. I am told By a few people that’s what it will be like for the next few days, possibly with more rain though.
The lady doing bingo said baby beach area had more of the same but with damaging wind, so I am just going to be prepared for anything

[Andrea J.]

this written forecast will be updated this morning and I will post.

www.meteo.aw/pronostico.php

WEATHER FORECAST VALID UNTIL THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 22 2022, 18:00 HOURS

WEATHER:
THIS EVENING: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A LOCAL SHOWER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW: PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH A BRIEF SHOWER

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE 34 CENTIGRADES
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE 28 CENTIGRADES
HEAT INDEX DURING AND AROUND THE AFTERNOON
HOURS: 36 TO 40 DEGREES CELSIUS
UV INDEX: 12

SUNSET : 6:36 PM
SUNRISE: 6:29 AM.

WIND: LIGHT BREEZE TO MODERATE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST;
FORCE 2 TO 4 (7 TO 30 KM/HR, 4 TO 16 KNOTS).
TEMPORARILY VARIABLE.

SYNOPSIS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS:
A STILL SMALL PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN WEAK TO MODERATE WINDS. MOISTURE IN THE
REGION WILL COUPLE WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING AND
RELATIVE LIGHT WINDS TO INDUCE SOME CLOUDY SPELLS.
THIS CAN PRODUCE A LOCAL BRIEF SHOWER WITH ALSO
STILL RISK OF SOME THUNDER. LOCALLY SHOWERS CAN
BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AND CAUSE SOME STREET OR
URBAN FLOODING.

MARINE CONDITIONS/ STATE OF THE SEA:
ON THE PROTECTED SITES: SMOOTH
ON THE SOUTH SECTIONS: MODERATE
ON THE EAST TO NORTHWEST COASTLINES:
GENERALLY MODERATE

WARNINGS/ ADVISORIES:
OWNERS OF SMALL CRAFT ARE ADVISED TO PROCEED WITH
CAUTION ON THE EAST TO NORTHWEST COASTAL REGIONS.

SPECIAL FEATURES:
NONE

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:
1. HURRICANE FIONA WAS LOCATED AT ABOUT 1090 KM SOUTHWEST
OF BERMUDA, MOVING NORTH AT 13 KM/HR.
THIS SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT TO THE LOCAL AREA.

2. TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED AT 1100 KM WEST DI
AZOREN, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 KM/HR. THIS SYSTEM IS OF
NO IMPORTANCE TO THE CARIBBEAN.

3. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN
HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
2 TO 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS:
3 TO 7 MM; THIS CAN VARY LOCALLY.

OBSERVED TEMPERATURE (CENTIGRADE) AND RAINFALL (MM)
IN THE LAST 24 HOURS (8 AM TO 8 AM):

AIRPORT : MAX 31 / MIN 25 / 10.0 MM
WESTPUNT: MAX 32 / MIN 27 / 7.8 MM
STA ROSA: MAX 33 / MIN 26 / 10.2 MM

WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING 3 DAYS:
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A PASSING TO BRIEF SHOWER;
WINDS WILL BE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTIONS
AND LIGHT TO MODERATE; MAX/ MIN TEMPERATURES
(CENTIGRADES) WILL BE: 34 / 28

METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT ARUBA, WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 21 2022 17:00 (21:00 UTC)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++

[Andrea J.]

ugg
did the maintenance dept come to assist in the process to get rid of your water?
what a pain!

I can confirm in the lowrise area, that sometime between 11 PM Tuesday and 2 AM Wednesday it poured out because I woke up at two and my bedroom floor was covered with about a half an inch of water. I went on my tour at eight and it was sunny and hot with no breeze out behind the chapel. We got back and went to Eduardo’s at La cabana and around 1130It poured again as we drove back to Divi Village. A Little bit of thunder but mostly rain. I started to clean off my deck and bedroom floor but the sun came out so I went down to the pool. As soon as I got in the water the skies opened up again and it rained very hard again. I am told By a few people that’s what it will be like for the next few days, possibly with more rain though.
The lady doing bingo said baby beach area had more of the same but with damaging wind, so I am just going to be prepared for anything

[Andrea J.]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

the national hurricane ctr. 8 am update
1. Southeastern Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a tropical
wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea. Although
upper-level winds are currently inhibiting development, the
environment is forecast to gradually become more favorable in a
couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form at that
time. The disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward across
the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two, and be over
the central Caribbean Sea this weekend. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely to affect the
Windward Islands, northern Venezuela, and the ABC island chain
today. These impacts are likely to spread to northeastern Colombia
later this evening.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Andrea J.]

here is the most recent update from NHC/NOAA . https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

1. Southeastern Caribbean Sea:Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
low pressure system located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
about 150 miles east-northeast of Curacao. The upper-level wind
environment over the low is expected to become more conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next day or two while moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the central Caribbean Sea. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds are likely to affect northwestern Venezuela, the ABC island
chain, and northeastern Colombia through Friday. Interests in
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should closely monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.